Sale report 001 · graded 27 July 2026
Sotheby's NBA Auctions Weekly. 66 lots, no reserves, no published estimates. Three star calls and two structural tests.
| House | Sotheby's — NBA Auctions Weekly |
| Closed | 27 July 2026, from 21:30 EDT |
| Format | Timed online, one-minute intervals |
| Premium | 28% |
| Estimates | None published |
| Reserves | None |
| Call class | Live-bid |
Signed error is how far the middle of my band sat from the final price. Positive means I called it high.
I said Luka > Jokić > Edwards. It finished Luka > Edwards > Jokić. Top right, bottom two backwards. Half.
| Star calls | 1 hit, 2 misses |
| Structural tests | 2 of 2 |
| Ordering call | Half |
| Overall | 4 hits · 2 misses · 1 half |
| Median signed error | +46% — high |
| Called high / low | 3 / 0 |
| Beat the house | Not applicable — no estimates published |
Confidence came out backwards. High-confidence call missed. Medium-low hit. Low-confidence missed worst of all. Three data points is nothing — but if that pattern survives ten sales, it's the most important thing in this whole project.
I anchored to his Lakers playoff jersey at $51,000. This was a Cup quarterfinal. I treated two different stages as the same thing because the player was the same — substituting who wore it for what it was.
I logged it low confidence and said out loud it was a model read with no jersey comp behind it. Being honest about that didn't save me. Best stat line in the sale, and it closed at a third of Luka's price.
I wrote that market size beats the moment beats the rising star. Minnesota isn't a bigger market than Denver, and Minnesota won that matchup. Market size didn't sort these at all. Player heat did — the superstar, then the ascendant kid, then the best player in the world that nobody's buying.
I said stars should clear 15 to 50 times the role-player floor. Across 26 role-player closes the median floor was $576. Luka landed at 62×, Edwards 36×, Jokić 21×. Two of three inside the band, order correct.
I flagged this as confounded when I called it — the two jerseys I was watching belonged to different players, and the more collectible name was on the issued one. The full population settles it.
| Category | Lots | Median close |
|---|---|---|
| Game worn | 10 | $1,024 |
| Game issued | 16 | $512 |
| Ratio | 2.00× |
Band lower for league-consigned, no-reserve, current-season sales — this isn't a marquee sale and shouldn't be priced like one. Don't price a stat line as a moment. Player heat sorts current-season lots, not market size. Treat worn versus issued as a 2× adjustment. And note the estimate regime on every future call, so like gets compared with like.
Every role-player "Christmas Day" close captured on the night, premium included. This is the floor the star multiples get measured against.
| Player | Close | Type | Player | Close | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Juzang | $256 | Issued | Zeke Nnaji | $512 | Worn |
| Leonard Miller | $256 | Issued | De'Anthony Melton | $512 | Worn |
| Jalen Pickett | $384 | Issued | Craig Porter Jr | $640 | Issued |
| Quinten Post | $384 | Worn | Thomas Bryant | $640 | Issued |
| Jaylen Clark | $512 | Worn | Larry Nance Jr | $768 | Issued |
| Joe Ingles | $512 | Issued | Buddy Hield | $768 | Issued |
| Jaden Hardy | $512 | Issued | Jonas Valančiūnas | $896 | Worn |
| Dwight Powell | $512 | Issued | Moses Moody | $896 | Issued |
| Hunter Tyson | $512 | Issued | Jeremy Sochan | $896 | Issued |
| DaRon Holmes II | $512 | Issued | Ryan Nembhard | $1,152 | Worn |
| Jordan McLaughlin | $512 | Issued | Caleb Martin | $1,408 | Worn |
| Luke Kornet | $1,408 | Worn | Brandon Williams | $1,920 | Worn |
| Tyrese Proctor | $2,176 | Issued | Julian Champagnie | $2,176 | Worn |